Nov. 14 is this year’s deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft, which takes place on Dec. 6 as part of MLB’s Winter Meetings.
The draft is intended to prevent teams from hoarding talent in the minors, so each year a new set of prospects age into being Rule 5-eligible and must be protected with a 40-man roster spot or left available to be drafted. Picking a player in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 draft costs $100,000 and they have to remain on the new team’s major-league roster for the entire season or be offered back to the original team for $50,000.
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Players added to the 40-man roster now can’t simply be removed once the Rule 5 draft is over, which means teams wanting to preserve precious spots for future use have difficult calls to make. Most teams protect a handful of new prospects by adding them to the 40-man roster each offseason. This year, the Minnesota Twins have two obvious additions to make, along with a bunch of tougher calls.
Here are the 10 most prominent Twins prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster by Nov. 14.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Knee surgery cost Emmanuel Rodriguez the second half of 2022 and he got off to a brutal start this season at High A, hitting .163 in April and May. And then he went on a four-month heater, batting .261/.420/.507 with 33 extra-base hits, 75 walks and 18 steals in his final 78 games. And he did all of that as a 20-year-old, facing pitchers older than him in 453 of 455 plate appearances.
High strikeout rates and a career .242 batting average are possible red flags, but Rodriguez’s ultra-disciplined approach is extremely rare for such a young hitter and he combines it with 30-homer power and above-average speed. Signed for $2.5 million as a 16-year-old, Rodriguez has cemented his status as a consensus top-100 prospect and ranks No. 3 in the Twins’ farm system. He’s a must-add.
"Welcome to Iowa, Emmanuel!"
Third-ranked @Twins prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez swats a walk-off grand slam in his first home game for the @CRKernels: pic.twitter.com/XNj35HjcT7
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 12, 2023
Austin Martin, 2B/OF
Acquired in mid-2021 as the headline prospect in the José Berríos trade, Austin Martin’s stock dropped when he followed a mediocre 2022 season at Double A by spending the first half of 2023 rehabbing from a spring elbow injury. He had to shake off some rust after joining the Triple-A lineup in early July, but Martin hit .300/.428/.473 with 29 walks and 15 steals in his last 44 games for St. Paul.
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Martin’s power hasn’t developed as hoped since he was drafted No. 5 in 2020, but his speed, on-base skills and defensive versatility make him a sure-fire big leaguer and a no-brainer Rule 5 protection. He could play a prominent role for the Twins as soon as mid-2024, profiling best in a super-utility role or as their long-term answer in center field.
Austin Martin with a HUGE go-ahead 3-run HR last night to help the @StPaulSaints get the WIN 💣
Martin was 2-3 with a HR, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored
Both of his hits were 101+ mph 🚀#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/cB2QCFbvcS
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 19, 2023
DaShawn Keirsey, OF
Speed and defense have always been DaShawn Keirsey’s biggest strengths, but the late-blooming 2018 fourth-round pick made massive strides offensively this year to change his long-term outlook. Keirsey hit .294/.366/.455 with 39 steals in 130 games between Double A and Triple A, homering 15 times after totaling 14 long balls in his first four seasons.
Keirsey is one of the fastest players in the organization and a legit center fielder, so he profiles as a future fourth outfielder at worst. And if this season’s offensive improvement is for real, the left-handed hitter could emerge as a platoon starter in center field, perhaps as soon as mid-2024. Either way, the 26-year-old would seemingly be a popular Rule 5 target if left unprotected by the Twins.
Okay Keirsey we see you 👀
Keirsey snags the last out in the third
Drillers 2-0 Surge pic.twitter.com/gmC8VzvE2S
— Wichita Wind Surge (@WindSurgeICT) April 21, 2023
Yunior Severino, 3B/1B
Yunior Severino led the minor leagues with 35 homers this season, the most by a Twins prospect since Miguel Sanó in 2013. And there weren’t many cheapies, as the 24-year-old switch-hitter launched tape-measure blasts from both sides of the plate. He slugged .560 with 24 homers in 84 games at Double A to earn a promotion to Triple A, where he slugged .511 with 11 homers in 36 games.
However, he also struck out 173 times in 120 games and slid further down the defensive spectrum, seeing his first career action at first base. Questions about Severino’s contact skills and fielding fit are why he twice went unprotected and unpicked in previous Rule 5 drafts, but a switch-hitter with 35 homers against high-minors competition might be tough for 29 teams to ignore again.
There is now a tie atop the Minor League leaderboard for home runs. Yunior Severino clubs his 35th home run of the year, 11th at Triple-A. He is tied with #Astros farmhand Shay Whitcomb for most in all of #MiLB. Lead 10-3 top 5@ticasino pic.twitter.com/9cPBq0HrYS
— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) September 23, 2023
Jair Camargo, C
Stuck at Triple A because the Twins were the lone American League team to use just two catchers this year, Jair Camargo hit .259/.323/.503 with 21 homers in 90 games and threw out 25 percent of steal attempts. And those season totals include a terrible April, after which the 24-year-old batted .288/.344/.569 with 20 homers in 74 games. He swings at everything, but it’s rare pop for a catcher.
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Like last offseason, Camargo is an impending minor-league free agent. Unlike last offseason, when the Twins simply re-signed him to a typical minor-league contract, they could still be at serious risk of losing him via the Rule 5 draft if he’s not also protected with a 40-man spot. Given the importance of catching depth, losing a potential quality backup for nothing would be a mistake.
🚨JAIR CAMARGO WALK OFF GRAND SLAM🚨 pic.twitter.com/g84FSD7Pzr
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) June 28, 2023
Anthony Prato, INF/OF
It’s hard to know what to make of Anthony Prato’s weird season. He hit .171 in 43 games at Double A, got a promotion to Triple A anyway because the Saints needed a warm body with defensive flexibility and then hit .302/.452/.539 in 72 games for St. Paul. Prato ranked No. 38 on my preseason Twins prospect list, so it didn’t come totally out of nowhere, but it was pretty close at age 25.
Prato has a career .390 on-base percentage, drawing 79 walks in 115 games this year, and he’s a solid fielder at second base, third base and both outfield corners. If left unprotected, teams could target him for a non-shortstop utility role.
Ricardo Olivar, OF/C
Ricardo Olivar was named MVP of the rookie-level Florida Complex League in 2022 and handled the jump to full-season competition well in 2023, hitting .285/.403/.452 in 100 games at Low A as a 21-year-old. He’s played quite a bit of catcher in the low minors but is considered pretty raw behind the plate and will likely wind up as a corner outfielder.
Olivar has shown the offensive upside to be on everyone’s radar, and a team that thinks he can actually stick at catcher might jump at the chance to grab him for nothing, but Low A to the majors is an awfully big leap for a Rule 5 pick.
Michael Helman, INF/OF
Twins officials were talking up Michael Helman as a potential midseason bench option last spring before a strained hamstring knocked him out until mid-April. He returned to hit .333 with four homers in 12 games at Triple A, only to miss three months with a dislocated left shoulder. Helman is far from a top prospect at 27 years old, but his skill set could make him an appealing Rule 5 target.
He’s batted .261/.332/.445 with 20 homers and 35 steals in 123 total games at Triple A, with typical platoon splits for a right-handed hitter, and Helman has played everywhere but catcher defensively.
Big night for Michael Helman in St. Paul🔥
He goes 3-5 with a 2B, HR, 5 RBIs in the Saints win💪 pic.twitter.com/ld1SD6cUxB
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) May 10, 2023
Jose Salas, INF
Jose Salas was viewed as a borderline top-100 prospect last winter when he was included as a sweetener in the Luis Arraez-for-Pablo López trade, but his stock has plummeted after hitting .190 with just four homers in 93 games at High A. He’s been pushed aggressively for a 20-year-old, and the speedy switch-hitter’s physical tools still stand out, but it was a hugely disappointing season.
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It’s hard to imagine one of the other 29 teams still believing in Salas’ upside so much that they’d be willing to stash him on their active major-league roster for his entire age-21 season, but that’s the risk the Twins would be taking.
Aaron Sabato, 1B
Aaron Sabato has the name recognition of being a 2020 first-round pick after a great college career at North Carolina, but he was drafted strictly for his bat and simply hasn’t hit enough to be a valued prospect. He has big raw power and can draw walks, but Sabato is 24 years old and has hit just .212 with 394 strikeouts in 287 career games, including .221/.329/.430 at Double A this season.
Raw power and a first-round pedigree might be enough for Sabato to get taken if the Twins leave him unprotected, and from there he could certainly carve out a niche as a passable righty platoon player, but as is he’s not in the Twins’ plans.
Others of note: Alex Isola (1B/C), Alerick Soularie (OF/2B), Chris Williams (1B/C), Cody Laweryson (RHP), Seth Gray (3B/1B), Rubel Cespedes (INF), Miguel Rodriguez (RHP), Jeferson Morales (C/OF), John Stankiewicz (RHP)
(Top photo of Emmanuel Rodriguez: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
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